Models and Supermodels; Foreseeing the Future of COVID-19 Pandemic-A Narrative Review
Author(s): Aparna Singh*, Sourya Acharya, Samarth Shukla and Shivam Khanna
Abstract
Currently, the world is under a threat from COVID-19 which is a new disease spread by a virus of Corona family. Majority of countries of world have noticed a huge number of COVID-19 cases from December 2019 onwards. People with low immunity, old age, and associated co morbidities have severe COVID-19 infection with increase mortality. The symptoms of COVID-19 are cough, cold, breathing problem very similar to flu. It is observed by the doctors that a person infected by COVID-19 is recovered within 14-16 days because the incubation period of novel Corona virus is of fourteen days. COVID-19 is now a pandemic as declared by World Health Organization (WHO).
If hospitals are not well prepared, then it is not possible for health workers to operate efficiently. In this situation it is inevitable to have an accurate estimation of new COVID-19 cases, which can help the medical and administrative authorities. Further, it is also very important too know that which country is facing how much severity of this disease. It is reported that there are three important stages of COVID-19; stage-II and stage-III. In stage-II, there is person to person transmission and in stage-III, there is a community transmission. According to the stage of COVID-19, plan of action by different countries can be decided.
In India, the first case of COVID-19 was reported on 30 January 2020, originating from China. After two months this disease spread in almost all parts of the country. After the first wave, the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic created havoc. The world is probably waiting for the third wave. But; how is the third wave going to hit is debatable. With ongoing mass vaccinations on one hand to evolution of new mutants at the other, the scientific dilemma continues to haunt. Mathematical models/supermodels were created to predict natural course of disease by think tanks all over the globe. This narrative review focuses on these mathematical models and their utility in prediction of the COVID-19 pandemic.